Wednesday, August 3, 2016

Analysis of The Fall of Rome; Modern Parallels by Stefan Molyneux

Why did Rome fall?

Overview



Political Correctness is an attack on any knowledge that would serve to curb state power

State power grows and grows

Rome didn't sucumb to war or ....


Pressure from North from Barbarians.

The barbarians kept their tribal allegiances

When money ran out

Multiculturalism

Roman currency

Latin

1 Legal system

Good builders
Pure water through aqueducts
Peace
Roads
Legal system
Courts

Worked only 2 days per year to pay taxes

Historian -

Freedom (17:14)
1. National - free from foreign domination
2. Political - Freedom to vote to choose your magistrates
3. Individual - Do what you will though you harm no others. No force or fraud against others.

These values must be taught from birth.

Different from others thought. Greeks, Africans, Germans, Egyptians.

Here are your papers. Now you're just like us

When you move a hamster from a cage to an aquarium it doesn't become a fish.

Roman culture was foundation of Rome's success

Culture is learned like learning a language.

Culture is transferred by citizenship

American Identity

America runs out of $

117 AD 5 Million KM**2

Roman women had 6 - 9 children. Hi infant mortalitiy

Population growth of 0.1%. It went up 4x. Life expectency 25 years. If you survive childhood your life expectancy was 60 yrs old.

How did people die?

Today it's chronic end of life diseases

You didn't die of old age, you died of germs,infections ex. TB.

Why didn't Rome have an Industrial Revolution?

Ancient rome knew about steam engine

Early mortality caused problems.

Health Adjusted Life Expectancy (HALE) - # of years you live in good health. Now, 8% of your life is not in good health. Back then 17%. This is not good for economic growth.

Slave Trade

  • Were almost all European 
13.6 people vs 254 (UK)  pop/ km**2

Sanitation

People replacement rates were low enough that you had to have constant immigration.

Population decline
  • Change gov't policies that produce the decline
  • Politicians bring in people from questionably compatible cultures
Empires in General (29:00)

  • China - Han
  • India - Mauryan
  • Persia (Iran) - Parthian
  • Rome
Created by force, but institutions allow you to conquer and move on.

Space alien example.  (31:20)
  • End war
  • Reduce taxes by 90%
  • Double your life span
What Rome did
  • cleaned out the pirates
  • Merchants loved the Romans
  • Dug canals
  • Maintained Roads and bridges
  • Built things to last
  • Good at organizing but bad at creating
  • Army in Combat only 10% of time, most of time used to built infrastructure
  • Well developed written laws
  • Uniformed currency
  • Weights and measures
  • Army building/maintaining stuff
  • Protection from savages (Hadrian's wall)
  • Religious toleration
System of Succession
  • Roman's not able to create stable system
  • Power disruptions

Barbarians (37:00)

  • Bigger you get the vulnerable you are to attack
  • Regular clashes with Northern Barbarians
  • Invited in, never became true Romans, no integration retained original culture
  • Some people felt the Barbarians were better than the Romans at the end
When things are good everyone gets along, this can work but things go bad, resources run out, watch 
out
  • in-group preferences
  • fractures

Goths (39:29)

  • Germanic
  • Wanted to join empire
  • trade opportunities
  • peace in Rome
  • Fleeing the Huns
Lack of assimilation caused a huge number of problems.

People joined for $ not the values that create the $.

Fall of Rome - Tribal Origins (43:06)

  • 3 tribes
  • society mirrors tribal structure
  • Tribal structures are stable, self-regulating via ostracism
  • Among Greeks "liberty" meant self-govt not permissiveness
  • Tribal traditions passed to succeeding generations
  • King Servius replaced geographical divisions from tribal divisions
    • West did the same in the middle east
    • Same happened in partition of India and Pakistan
    • Czechoslovakia had problems in 1930s
    • Balkans
  • Aneus attributed Romes success to 3 things
    • Divine favor = Demographics and ethics
    • Discipline 
    • Moral character
  • First domino
    • Freedom of Speed vs. FOS is Blasphemy
    • Reason and evidence doesn't change minds
    • Culture patterns create Rome
    • New citizens doesn't have these patterns

Pre-Rome (49:15)

  • Greek and Egypt abandoned free market principles
  • Socialist
    • Central planning
    • command and control
    • dick?? tax
    • price controls
  • Egypt was main supplier of grain to Rome
  • 58 BC Rome had welfare state of grain
    • Grain handed out to Roman citizens
    • see https://fee.org/articles/poor-relief-in-ancient-rome/
    • The political lesson was plain. Mass relief, once granted, created a political pressure group that no­body dared to oppose. The long-run tendency of relief was to grow and grow. The historian Rostov­tzeff explains how the process worked 
    • Slaves create unemployment
    • Welfare aka Dole destroys Rome
    • The growing burden of the dole was obviously responsible for a great part of this chain of evils, and at least two lessons can be drawn. The first, which we meet again and again in history, is that once the dole or similar relief pro­grams are introduced, they seem almost inevitably—unless sur­rounded by the most rigid restric­tions—to get out of hand. The sec­ond lesson is that once this hap­pens, the poor become more num­erous and worse off than they were before, not only because they have lost self-reliance, but because the sources of wealth and production on which they depended for either doles or jobs are diminished or destroyed.
  • Free market creates wealth
    • Private property
    • Private enterprise
    • Free trade
    • Predictibility = expansion of trade


Slavery (54:51)

  • Expanded to take slaves (3rd - 2nd Century BC)
  • H1B Visas, immigrants, outsourcing
    • Importing people that local people can't compete with (very hard)
    • This makes Trump interesting
  • 1 MM inhabitants in Rome, 33% are slaves
  • Can't compete with free
  • In America there are people where 2 - 3 generations where no one has a job. The following get lost and is hard to resurect
    • Human capital
    • Discipline
    • Knowledge
    • How to make $
    • How to deal with conflicts
    • How to work with your boss
    • How to please customers
  • A lot of unemployed people in the city = social unrest
    • Rome gives them bread and circuses
  • No industrial revolution because of slavery. Why invent devices? Value of slaves goes down.
  • Last 400 years of empire they didn't create much
  • Couldn't produce enough goods and food for growing population due curse of slave labor
  • Knew about water wheel and other tech but relied on slave labor
  • Farms went from middle class small family biz to large slave run plantations
  • Couldn't compete so they move to city for welfare
  • Similar to Outsourcing
  • People will reduce their wages to point of welfare

Monetary Policy (1:02:36)










Tuesday, August 2, 2016

My mid-year job review

Mid-year Employment Review

A week and few days ago, I had my mid-year employment review. It went okay. My boss rated me as Meets Expectations.

There are 3 possible ratings Below Expectations, Meets Expectations and Exceeds Expectations.  My understanding of the way it works is that 20% of the team gets Below Expectations, 20% gets Exceeds Expectation and the remaining 60% gets Meets Expectations.  The Exceeds Expectation grade means you get bigger raises, higher salary and less likely to get laid off or downsized. Now this system is so ridiculous. It gives incentives to not help others on your team. Every time I help someone on my team it reduces my OOEE. (Odds of Exceeds Expectation).

Part of the review process is to do a self review, meaning you rate yourself and write something about what you did. After you submit this to your boss you meet in person. Near the end of my review iew my boss tells me that another group at my company has an open position, would I be interested in it?  I said sure. Recently, I started running a weekly company meeting on Tuesday's. He said that they would get someone else to run the meetings.

So now I'm wondering why would my boss want me to work somewhere else?

Our department isn't doing that well as we don't have a budget. A couple of senior managers have been moved out of the department.

My boss went on vacation the following week so I could think about it.  I spent a lot of time figuring ways to get an Exceeds Expectations which I'll list later in this post.

When he came back he sent me a job description for the job. I did an analysis for the job and the result came up to not pursue it. I used a spreadsheet and rated a number of items.

I usually say that it always pays to go on interviews to improve your interviewing skills. So I decide to proceed.  Now while I'm proceeding I realize that I should be also looking for a new job to get more leverage and see if there's something better than this one. So at first I'm having a little stress from this process. But now I'm getting excited about doing something new, making more money and having more excitement on the job.

What have your experienced been with employment reviews? Please let me know in the comments below.




Sunday, July 31, 2016

Problem Solving In Excel The macro may not be available in this workbook or all macros may be diabled


I get the following error message while trying to run some code I've developed. I just made some changes to this subroutine so odds are that it's missing.

The first thing I do is check if other macros are working. I have one that inserts a blank cell and shifts all the other cells down within the active column. I try it and it works.

I did move the macro from ThisWorkbook to a module so it can be called by other routines.

I press Alt+F11 and search for the string in the error message "book.on"


Private Sub Workbook_Activate()
 Application.OnKey "^+{RIGHT}", "ThisWorkbook.OnCtrlShiftRightArrowKeyPress"
 Application.OnKey "^+{LEFT}", "ThisWorkbook.OnCtrlShiftLeftArrowKeyPress"

End Sub


I modify the code to the following:

 Application.OnKey "^+{RIGHT}", "OnCtrlShiftLeftArrowKeyPress"

I run the code via F8.

and then try the function again. It fails with the same message. I check the change I made and see that I did it wrong and fix it. Another test and the the fix works.

I save and back up the code.


Sunday, July 24, 2016

My view at Yankee stadium

Daily 5 Minute Journal - July 24, 2016

Today I mowed the back yard and cut up some branches, went food shopping and took my wife to train station and took dog on a play date.

It's 2:23 pm and I'm a little tired.

I've been into Scott Adam's blog lately, which I find very interesting

I was at the Yankee game with my son. We left at 12 PM and got to the gate a 1 PM for a 4:05 PM game against the SF Giants.  I got a spot on the street and saved $30.

There was no batting practice and we got there 3 hours early to see it. Amazingly, my son still got a ball.  He's up to 47 balls now.

Unfortunately the Yankees lose in extra innings. Brian McCan could have won the game with a long fly ball, a walk or a grounder past the infielders. He got up with bases loaded and he swung at the first pitch and blooped a short fly ball which was caught. The man on third couldn't tag up.

Also, no Arod. If you do go to a Yankee game the best seats are in the grandstands behind home plate as these seats are in the shade.

I'm having pains in my arms, I think from lifting weights. Almost feels like my tendons/ligaments are injured. I have to rest them or take it easier at the gym.

This is the 3rd time +Tim Ferriss  advice didn't work

  1. His slow-carb diet failed
  2. His 30 gms of protein within 30 minutes of awakening failed
  3. His suggestion to gaining strength failed as I injured myself




Monday, July 11, 2016

Daily 5 Minute Journal - July 11, 2016

I'm on vacation today and I've spent most of the day reading through Scott Adam's (Dilbert creator) Blog on Persuasion.

I've started working on the outline for a book called The Persuasion Bible.

I've always been interested in the subject and have read a number of books on it. Recently I've seen new reasons to use it in my daily life. 

At work some of his suggestions appear to have been useful to get others to help me out..

I'm also re-reading his great book How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big.



Yesterday I was at the Sands Point Preserve and had a nice time. Lot's of dogs.


My weight this morning was 169.2 which is higher than I need to reach my daily goal.  I'm going to try to limit my calorie intake to 1500 calories. 

Another thing I tried as suggested from Tim Ferriss' 4 Hour Body was to take pictures of what I ate. I've been unsuccessful at doing this. I'm not sure why. 

Today I went to the Dermatologist for a checkup and everything was okay.

I already took my dog for a walk and find she's very lethargic. Yesterday I read about dogs eating garlic and it's one of the symptoms of poisoning.  I noticed that the Trader Joe's treats I've been giving her has garlic in it.










Even though I'm on vacation I have to do my self-review and send out an email for others to follow up. I've been procrastinating on this.




Saturday, July 2, 2016

Are you underappreciated?

If you are, tell me in the comments below, because I can help you be appreciated more and feel your pain.

The most common places to be underappreciated is at home and at work.

I help people all the time and feel underappreciated. The worst was when they gave a co-worker an award at work and not me. I did at least half of the work if not more.

Ask yourself are you under-appreciating someone?  If you are the person might:

  • quit
  • leave
  • get even
  • stop working hard
  • find someone that appreciates them
  • perform poorly