Sunday, January 31, 2016

Why Winning at Gambling is Really Losing

Found money.

What is it?

You gamble and make some money but you consider it "found" or not real. If you lose it, it's not the same as losing money you earned.

So say you gamble and win $10,000. That money is considered "found" and has less value then earned money, so it's treated differently. The majority of people will increase the size of their bet until their $10,000 is now $0.  Once this happens the money that was once found now becomes lost money and you want to get it back.

So what do you do continue gambling and increasing wagers until you do. You may get the $10K back but eventually you'll be sorry you ever won that first bet.

Why do you lose if you gamble? This is because the odds of winning are almost always against you. For example on Draft Kings if you bet you don't get even money (ie you bet $1 and win $2, doubling your initial bet). You pay a 20% vig or fee to make the bet. This means to break even you have to pick or be the winner 60% of the time. The best sports analysts win 55% of the time so this bet is really a suckers bet.  The same in the casino where you have losing odds on all games. There appears to be a Black Jack exception where if you learn to count cards and play perfectly you could go above 50% chance of winning. But most casinos will ban you if you can do this.

The best description of the pitfalls of gambling is in the book "The Power of Habit" by Charles Duhig. pp. 246 - 251.

Daily 5 Minute Journal Jan. 24, 2016

Lots of snow and another unproductive day. I'm going to spend some time this morning creating code that tracks what window I'm using.

The big task for today will be shoveling but I could pay someone to do it. I feel that I can get some exercise. The key is to not lift too much snow by using a smaller shovel.

The cable went out last night while we were in the middle of watch a David Bowie documentary. One thing I learned was that David Bowie was called David Jones but changed his name when the Davie Jones from the Monkees became popular. Also many people though Bowie had two different color eyes, but the difference was caused by getting punched in his eye that left his pupil permanently dilated.




Prior to that I was watching a movie called the Velvet Goldmine on Putlocker (em)  that was highly recommended by my wife's brother. I didn't like it and stopped in the middle to watch real Bowie. One thing while watching on Putlocker is that potential viruses or are they called viri come up. One was a voice saying you've been infected call Microsoft at 877-xxx xxxx immediately.  I couldn't minimize or leave the page in Chrome browser. The only thing that worked was Ctrl+Shift+Esc which is pressing and hold Ctrl and Shift down and then pressing Esc key. This brings up Taskmgr program where you can select the browser in this case Chrome and press the End Task button in lower right corner.

Putlocker

Daily 5 Minute Journal Jan. 28, 2016

Weight was down today at 162.8 and blood sugar fasting seems to be a consistent 105.  On Wednesday night I went with a co-worker to a Fin-Tech meetup at a bar called the headless Horseman near the Irving Plaza theater.  They served free booze if you signed up for the meetup.  I had 3 vodka's on the rocks. I chatted with a number of people and when I gave out my business card I gave the person a blank index card.  Something about this just made me laugh inside.

So the night went on and I chatted to a number of people, but then the story gets strange. I have very little memory of what happened but at some time I left the bar and I don't remember leaving. I remember looking up at a sign and it seemed like I was on Delancy St more likely by Stuyvesant Place. So I took a cab to Penn Station and the next thing I remember waking not at my stop I though it was Islip. There was a cab outside so I had him take me home which cost $65 with tip.

I find out that google tracks your every move, but when I check out where I was, it's blank. Who knows, maybe I was abducted by aliens.

After eating at Taco Bell 3 items my blood sugar hits 178, :(



Daily 5 Minute Journal. January 30, 2016

Weight okay 163.6 but didn't reach my month goal of < 160, .  My blood sugar AM reading continues to be 105 which isn't good, pre-diabetic and I'm not sure what to do to get it lower. I'm not sure my Metformin is working. I'm thinking of testing each night with and without before bed an upon awakening and seeing if it lowers my blood sugar at my current dosage of 500 mg. I'm disappointed that my AM bs seems to be 105.

Now that February is starting up I think I need to try weight lifting to better improve my osteoporosis and high blood sugar.

Went to a Barnes and Noble book store today and bought a few new books.

  • The Productivity Project - Chris Bailey
  • 101 Best Diabetic Foods - Betsy A. Hornick
  • One Year to an Organized Work Life
  • Never too busy to Cure Clutter
  • The 80/20 Principle
  • Calm - 50 Mindfulness and Relaxation Exercises to destress and unwind
  • Who Gets Promoted and Who Doesn't and Why
I was looking for the book for my son I will teach you to be rich +Ramit Sethi but they didn't have it. It seems like a good book for college students.



Took my dog to dog park. She didn't seem to enjoy it as she was afraid of the other dogs. 

Dog on antihistamine benadryl (em)

Love Target Grape drink.

Library books overdue. I started to develop software that goes to my libraries website and retrieves how many days to my books are due. Even with this I missed the deadline.





Daily 5 minute Journal - Jan. 31, 2016

Went out to dinner to Mario's in Plainview two night's ago and Accidentally bumped into some neighbors.
The food was surprisingly good. I had a Gorgonzola salad with chicken and a glass of Merlot that was delicious. My son and wife's dishes were also excellent.  a little rude If the server was nicer this would have been a really great meal. I felt this because we were talking with the friends and she asked if we could order drinks. I don't know exactly what it was but she could have done it in a better way.

Last night went to Krinti an upscale Mediterranean restaurant with another couple.
Food was awesome. The place was a bit small as we waited squished at the bar. Afterwards we went to Cardinali in Syosset. They have such great Gelato and the coffee was also very good.

One of the people is a very nice guy who's into horse racing. I told him about a strategy that a very smart guy who was head of algorithmic trading at JP Morgan Chase. The strategy is to always bet the long shot. He reminded of something I told him as we use to take the train together. I said you'd know I made it big when you saw a Porsche in my driveway. I use to come up with lots of ideas that I'd discuss with him on the train ride.

It's getting hard to pick what to do next with all the books I just bought. I do have a library book that's one day overdue. So for any reading it's just this book. Choose Yourself  by +james altucher


Saturday, January 23, 2016

Daily 5 Minute Journal Jan. 23, 2016 #BlizzardOf2016

Blizzard of 2016 and about 6 inches of snow at noon.






Woke up with wt. of 165 and blood sugar of 105.  This brings me to one of my favorite quotes "If you do what you've done you get what you got."

Oldest son has went back to college and I'm happy I didn't have to take him.

January is coming to a close and for the 3rd straight month I didn't reach my goal.
  • Nov. 2015 - Declutter
  • Dec. 2015 - Lower Blood Sugar
  • Jan. 2016 - W < 160
  • Feb. 2016 - Learn more and take action on osteoporosis
  • Mar. 2016 - Finish Wisdom of a Dad
My monthly goal idea hasn't been working.

Why?

Maybe the lack of a plan. It was my goal but not in an all out attempt. 

In terms of deculttering, I did throw out some stuff but not enough. Lowering Blood Sugar, I've started on Metformin but haven't seen a real lowering of blood sugar or measured it clearly. My weight has stabilized and seems to be trending. between 161 and 170.


One thing I've learned is that deadlines help.  If you wait until the last minute and don't have a deadline, you'll never finish.

I've been enjoying work more lately as I've been put in charge of the Tuesday meetings and it takes time to run them.  I spent a lot of time getting the Snapshots software which is a screen recorder to work but it's not working on my laptop.

Things are changing fast at work. I've started working with a new guy in a different dept. who was late for a meeting I set up. He had very long hair, rather young and had a weird bag with him. He also told be he managed $3 mm and was let go because his quota was $6mm. I gave him a presentation and he was yawning through it. He made a comment about the code (Python) didn't have enough "Try" statements. He also complained that (me60) chart on Excel didn't have units or a label.

New Rule: When meeting someone new never complain about their work even if it's bad especially if unsolicited.

I find out through a co-worker that there will be a presentation on Tableau at a weekly meeting that I probably wouldn't have attended. I need an easy way to put something on my calendar at work. I currently use email to send tasks to work when not at work and home tasks when not at home. I wish the email system could automatically add the tasks to my to do lists.

Recently heard 3 podcasts from +Tim Ferriss. One was with  @EricRWeinstein which was very interesting one with @PeterTheil and one with +Daymond John. It's always the same issue though whether it's from a book, podcast or comment; how do you do what someone says when it's good advice. I call this B2A or Book to Action. I have read many self-help books, marketing, sales books but have I done one thing in them. Even the Four Hour Work Week has so much highlighting but little action.

The books you have tells you about your goals. You could use the books to give yourself a good idea of what you want.

Annoyed that on twitter mobile I couldn't add someone to a list.

Atheism

Love the +Sam Harris quote. 

STS

Smart Task Selection. There are 2 questions:

  • What should I do now?
  • What did I do?

The idea is that we humans are prisoners of our habits which are extremely hard to change. If someone or something told you exactly what to do and when, could they increase their success?

Would they follow the instructions?  How would this program or recipe work?

I recently shared my idea of Smart Task Selection with a co-worker and he liked the idea. He thought it should be calendar based where I've always had it task based. I have thought about calendar based and maybe I should try this.

Presentations

I've been working on a presentation with a co-worker and have a few pet peeves that are done
  • Define all acronyms in PPT
  • Clarify terms with whole slides
  • 10/20/30 - Ten slides, twenty minutes, thirty point font - +Guy Kawasaki 

New phone

New phone, Droid Turbo came in. It's my 3rd one. First one headphone jack failed. The second one would reboot all the time, mostly when walking in cold weather. I was able to figure out how to remove the Simm (me10) card, by using my finger nail and pulling it out, then replacing it in my new phone.  

Twitter

Still like twitter as I have a lot of followers and enjoy getting likes and retweets. Would like to find a way to make some friends out of it.


Health

Neck pain is waning, which is from sleeping on a couch and twisting my head. Having pain in left knee when walking up/down stairs.

sin

Dog Training

This week I tried to train my dog to bark and identify objects that we can't find like her collar and the remote. I did the training using a clicker. At some point she got it. When I asked my wife to come watch her do it she couldn't.  She was picking stuff at random and getting a treat. Next time I have to only reward her if she picks out the item the first time and not after trying all the items

Monday, January 18, 2016

Daily 5 Minute Journal - Jan. 18, 2016

Martin Luther King's birthday and I get a day off from work making it a 3 day weekend.

He was a great man for teaching non-violent protest and his beautiful "I have a dream speech"

It's a cold day 25 degrees in NYC and a slight coating of snow on the ground and phone just rebooted but at least I'm getting a new one.

I think I have ADHD, from an article in Lifehack.org,

I just listened and analyzed an interview from +Daymond John  of +Tim Ferriss. Even a guy like Daymond was uhing in the interview. Though it was very useful to hear Tim's story on how he got success. Of course luck is involved.

He met +Robert Scoble by accidentally being nice to his wife Miriam who was helping people sign in to a conference.

At +SXSW someone canceled and Tim was able to speak there.

He brought on the luck through persistence, being nice to people and asking for help. Some of the takeaways I got were:

  • Be nice to people
  • Don't pitch where everyone is pitching
  • In person beats email or phone
  • Surf waves that no one has surfed before
  • Hardest place to sell a book is a bookstore
  • Volunteer for co's that can help you and work your ass off
  • You can get rejected many times and be successful as long as you don't give up
  • Small thing (mention from Robert Scoble) can start the entire snowball rolling
  • Prepare your presentation, even if in front of a dog
  • Get feedback on your idea
  • Test your concept so you know if you should pursue it or not