Sunday, January 31, 2016

Why Winning at Gambling is Really Losing

Found money.

What is it?

You gamble and make some money but you consider it "found" or not real. If you lose it, it's not the same as losing money you earned.

So say you gamble and win $10,000. That money is considered "found" and has less value then earned money, so it's treated differently. The majority of people will increase the size of their bet until their $10,000 is now $0.  Once this happens the money that was once found now becomes lost money and you want to get it back.

So what do you do continue gambling and increasing wagers until you do. You may get the $10K back but eventually you'll be sorry you ever won that first bet.

Why do you lose if you gamble? This is because the odds of winning are almost always against you. For example on Draft Kings if you bet you don't get even money (ie you bet $1 and win $2, doubling your initial bet). You pay a 20% vig or fee to make the bet. This means to break even you have to pick or be the winner 60% of the time. The best sports analysts win 55% of the time so this bet is really a suckers bet.  The same in the casino where you have losing odds on all games. There appears to be a Black Jack exception where if you learn to count cards and play perfectly you could go above 50% chance of winning. But most casinos will ban you if you can do this.

The best description of the pitfalls of gambling is in the book "The Power of Habit" by Charles Duhig. pp. 246 - 251.

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